Oil Crisis — Research Index ¶

Last updated: Sep 9, 2026 (Day 193 of the crisis — big pass: the war's biggest tit-for-tat wave, Iran's exclusion zone enforced before declared, Brent >$100 since Jul 24, the Sep 9 EIA STEO). A running research project tracking US, European, and Asian oil inventories under the dual chokepoint crisis (Hormuz + Red Sea) and the Russian refinery front.

Start here ¶

Living Summary ¶

~2-minute read: where things stand, the key numbers, the base case, and the watch list. Updated at the end of every research pass — this is the page to bookmark.

The analysis ¶

Oil Inventory Depletion Model — US & Europe (with Asia exposure) ¶

The full report: depletion timelines, the three-branch model, the SPR floor math, the infrastructure-damage inventory, the 12-month breaking-points extrapolation, the food/fertiliser second-order channel, and complete sources & caveats. Update banners are stacked at the top, newest first.

Model Card ¶

The compact specification of the model: inputs and sources, core assumptions, branch weights and endpoints, SPR runway, the dated breaking points, known limitations, and the update procedure. Distilled from the main report.

For a quick look ¶

Oil & Fuel Crisis — A Plain-Language Summary ¶

The same situation in plain language, for readers who don't track oil markets.

Caveat, repeated from the report: this is a stress test, not a forecast, produced by a coding agent rather than an energy analyst. Verify load-bearing numbers against primary sources (EIA, IEA, UKMTO/JMIC, IMO) before acting on them.